I provide a straightforward explanation of the methods used to calculate probabilities in Appendix B, along with a brief discussion. For our purposes here, it is enough to understand that the probability of two independent events (m and n) occurring simultaneously is calculated as 1 divided by (m × n), or 1 / (m × n).
Let me illustrate this with a simple example. Suppose that one in ten men is over six feet tall, and one in one hundred men weighs over three hundred pounds. According to probability theory, only one in a thousand men (10 × 100 = 1,000) would be both over six feet tall and weigh more than 300 pounds.
To support this with a practical exercise, imagine randomly selecting 1,000 men and sorting them by height. Since one in ten men is over six feet tall, one hundred of them will meet this criterion, while the remaining nine hundred will fall below that height and therefore cannot possess both traits we are analyzing.
Now, focusing on the one hundred men who are over six feet tall, and applying the second condition—that only one in a hundred weighs over three hundred pounds—only one of these one hundred men will also meet the weight criterion. Thus, just one out of the original 1,000 will meet both conditions, confirming the result predicted by the formula.
For more than seventy-five years, InterVarsity Christian Fellowship[1] has established student groups at hundreds of universities worldwide, offering Bible study courses and promoting spiritual growth on college campuses. During the 1960s, the organization sponsored a remarkable five-year research exercise at Pasadena City College in California, USA.
The goal of this project was to examine the probability that a series of messianic prophecies could have been fulfilled by chance. Students were encouraged to use the most conservative and cautious methods available to make their estimates. For example, they considered questions such as: What is the likelihood that a random individual would enter the city of Jerusalem riding a donkey while claiming royal or divine authority?
More than six hundred students participated in this study over several semesters. They deliberated, analyzed probabilities, documented their estimates, and presented their findings on a semester-by-semester basis[2].
What is the maximum number of individuals who could have entered Jerusalem on a donkey while claiming some form of authority? How common were donkeys in that period, and how many individuals would have had access to one? If ownership of such animals were typically limited to those with financial resources, how many people would qualify?
Now consider someone without wealth who still needed a donkey to fulfill such a symbolic act. That person would need to borrow the animal from a sympathetic, affluent acquaintance—someone willing to lend it for such a purpose. But how many individuals could realistically meet all these conditions?
By posing and discussing such specific, layered questions, the students participating in the study were able to reach a reasoned consensus on the statistical likelihood of any one person—at random—being able to fulfill this event exactly as described in prophecy.
The estimates I will use in the following analysis are direct results of this investigation. If you do not fully accept the numbers as they stand, you are welcome to adjust them to your own judgment. Even with reasonable modifications, the overall conclusion remains the same: the outcome is statistically astounding.
To support this argument, I will now present a detailed explanation of the exercise, using just eight of the forty-one prophecies I previously discussed.
Prophecy one: The Messiah was prophesied to be born in Bethlehem, to be the son of a virgin, and to be a descendant of King David—corresponding to prophecies two, six, and seven from the previous thesis.
The Gospels of Matthew and Luke both provide genealogical records of Jesus’ lineage. Matthew 1:1–17 gives the genealogy through Joseph, while Luke 3:23–38 traces it through Mary. The prophecy only required that the Messiah be a descendant of David, not through a specific parent, and both genealogies satisfy this requirement.
To understand the statistical significance of this fulfillment, we must consider the number of potential descendants from David to Jesus across twenty-five generations. Assuming each generation produced eight children, with a 50/50 male-to-female ratio, each generation would have four male children.
To calculate the number of potential male descendants, we raise 4 to the 25th power: 4²⁵ = 1,125,899,906,842,624
This figure represents the total number of potential male-line descendants over twenty-five generations.
However, since the prophecy also indicated that the Messiah would be the firstborn, the total number must be reduced accordingly. That brings the figure down to 281,474,976,710,656.
Now, consider the second condition: the Messiah would be born in Bethlehem. At the time of Jesus’ birth, Bethlehem was a small village with an estimated population of around three hundred people[3], while the world population is believed to have been approximately three hundred million[4]. This means that Bethlehem accounted for only one in every one million people on Earth.
So, to calculate the probability that someone who meets the first condition (a firstborn descendant of David) would also be born in Bethlehem, we divide: 1 / 281,474,976,710,656 × 1 / 1,000,000 ≈ 1 in 281,474,000,000 (or roughly 1 in 2.8 × 10¹¹)
This gives a conservative estimate of the probability that one person, by random chance, could fulfill just three of the prophecies: being the firstborn, a descendant of King David, and born in Bethlehem.
Prophecy two: Another prophecy—prophecy sixteen from the previous thesis—stated that a messenger would precede the Messiah, announcing His arrival. This messenger was identified as John the Baptist, who fulfilled this role in both message and character.
Now, consider the question: Of all the males who were born in Bethlehem, were firstborn, and descended from King David, how many could have had their coming announced in advance by a recognized prophet-like figure? The students involved in the study reasoned that such a messenger would have to be a unique individual, possessing the spiritual authority and qualities that characterized the prophets of antiquity.
They reached a conservative estimate, suggesting that only one in 1,000 individuals (or 1 in 10³) could meet such a condition—having their appearance foretold by someone publicly recognized as a legitimate forerunner, such as John the Baptist.
Prophecy Three: Another prophecy—prophecy twenty from the previous thesis—foretold that the Messiah would be proclaimed king and would enter Jerusalem riding on a donkey.
The question then arises: How many of the men who were born in Bethlehem, were descendants of King David, firstborn, and whose coming had been announced by a prophetic messenger could also have fulfilled this specific event? While someone determined to “force” the prophecy might obtain a donkey and choose to enter the city through one of Jerusalem’s gates, there is one crucial element he could not control: the reaction of the crowd. He could not manufacture the spontaneous proclamation of kingship by the people.
This element—being publicly recognized as a king during such an entrance—elevates the improbability of fulfilling this prophecy. The students conducting the analysis estimated that the chance of one individual meeting all these conditions and being hailed as king upon entering Jerusalem on a donkey was 1 in 10,000, or 1 in 10⁴.
Prophecy four: Prophecy twenty-two from the previous thesis stated that the Messiah would be betrayed by one of His closest companions—a reference to the betrayal by the apostle Judas, one of Jesus’ most trusted followers. This betrayal would lead to the wounds in His hands, also foretold in prophecy.
Unlike previous events, this prophecy is less causally connected to the others. It prompts a new question: What are the odds that a man—already meeting all the prior conditions—would be betrayed by a close friend, and that this betrayal would result in serious harm?
The students argued that such an event was highly uncommon. While betrayals do happen, they are far less likely to occur among individuals in close, trusted relationships, especially with consequences as severe as physical injury or death. This type of betrayal, particularly in a messianic context, would be especially rare.
Based on this reasoning, the students conservatively estimated the probability of such an occurrence as 1 in 1,000, or 1 in 10³.
Prophecy Five: Prophecy twenty-three from the previous thesis states that the traitor would receive thirty pieces of silver in exchange for the betrayal.
In this case, the question is straightforward: Of the individuals who could have been betrayed by a close companion, how many would have been betrayed specifically for thirty pieces of silver? Not just any amount, but that exact figure.
The students agreed that such a precise detail—especially involving a specific and uncommon sum—would make the fulfillment of this prophecy extremely rare. It was not simply that a betrayal occurred, but that it was carried out for this exact price, adding another layer of specificity to the chain of fulfilled events.
As a result, they conservatively estimated the probability of this happening to be 1 in 10,000, or 1 in 10⁴.
Prophecy Six: Prophecy twenty-four from the previous thesis foretold that the payment for the betrayal would be thrown into the temple and end up in its treasury. This prophecy is remarkably specific—it does not simply refer to the return of the money, but to the precise sequence of events involving the temple.
According to Matthew 27:3, Judas, feeling remorseful, attempted to return the thirty pieces of silver. The chief priests, however, refused to accept it. In response, Judas threw the coins into the temple before leaving. Later, the religious leaders used that money to purchase the potter’s field, which became a burial place for foreigners who died in Jerusalem.
The students were instructed to calculate the probability of such a unique chain of events: that a man would betray a close friend for thirty pieces of silver, attempt to return it, have it rejected, then throw the money into the temple, where it would be retrieved by the priests and used to buy a cemetery.
After careful consideration, the students concluded that such an intricate and highly specific scenario would be extremely rare, and they assigned a conservative estimate of 1 in 100,000, or 1 in 10⁵.
Prophecy Seven: Prophecy twenty-seven from the previous thesis stated that Jesus would remain silent during His trial, offering no defense for Himself even when facing the possibility of execution.
This detail stands out as deeply unusual. Most individuals, when falsely accused—especially in a life-threatening trial—would attempt to defend themselves, assert their innocence, or at least speak in their own favor. Remaining completely silent under such pressure would be extremely rare.
The students evaluating this prophecy were asked to consider how many men—who had already fulfilled all the previous criteria—would choose silence in a trial that could lead to their death. After examining historical behavior and likelihood, they estimated that the probability of such a response was 1 in 10,000, or 1 in 10⁴.
Prophecy Eight: Prophecy thirty from the previous thesis foretold that the Messiah would be crucified—a prophecy made by King David, long before crucifixion was even used as a form of execution.
The question posed to the students was this: Since the time of King David, how many men have been crucified? Although crucifixion later became a common method of execution under Roman rule, it was eventually abolished centuries ago and is no longer practiced.
Taking the entire span of history into account, the students estimated that the number of individuals who were crucified since David’s time would represent about 1 in 10,000 people, or 1 in 10⁴.
Even if one were to disagree with the estimates made by the six hundred students involved in the study, the total probability of fulfilling these eight specific prophecies would remain astronomically low. As explained earlier in this thesis; to determine the probability of multiple independent events occurring simultaneously, one must multiply their individual probabilities.
So, let us do the calculation using the estimates provided by the students: 2.8 × 10⁵ × 10³ × 10⁴ × 10³ × 10⁴ × 10⁵ × 10⁴ × 10⁴ = 2.8 × 10³²
This means that only one in 10³² people could have fulfilled just these eight prophecies. Keep in mind, there are over three hundred prophecies concerning the Messiah, and I have only presented forty-one in the previous section. If we were to continue the exercise and include even a portion of the remaining thirty-three, the probability would become inconceivably smaller.
To better grasp the magnitude of 1 in 10³², consider this: it is equivalent to 1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Now imagine we had that many silver dollar coins. If we used them to cover the entire surface of the Earth, they would form a layer approximately thirty-six meters (or about 120 feet) thick. Now, suppose we marked just one coin, blindfolded a person, and allowed them to walk anywhere on Earth, dig through the coins, and pick just one. The chance of that person selecting the marked coin on the first try would be the same as one man fulfilling all eight of those ancient prophecies by coincidence.
Yet Jesus of Nazareth did.
I have already demonstrated that these prophecies were written centuries before Jesus was born, based on manuscripts dating as far back as the eighth century bc. It is fair to assume that some prophecies—such as entering Jerusalem on a donkey—could theoretically have been intentionally fulfilled by someone attempting to present himself as the Messiah. It would not be difficult for a determined individual to acquire a donkey and ride it into the holy city.
But what about the rest? Could a person choose the place of his birth, or ensure He is a descendant of King David? Could He arrange to be betrayed by a close friend, or be crucified—a punishment no longer in use today? These are not controllable events.
So, how do we explain the fact that a single individual could fulfill so many specific and improbable predictions?
There are only two explanations. The first is that it was pure coincidence—that the prophets somehow guessed all these details without any divine insight, and that one man accidentally aligned with all of them. The second is that there was a higher intelligence—that God Himself revealed these future events to His prophets and orchestrated history to bring them to fulfillment in the person of Jesus Christ.
Professor Peter W. Stoner, former chair of the Department of Mathematics and Astronomy at Pasadena City College, built upon this analysis. He added eight more prophecies to the original eight and calculated[5] that the chance of one person fulfilling sixteen was 1 in 10⁵³. When he extended the analysis to forty-eight prophecies, the probability became 1 in 10¹⁸¹.
To visualize this, remember that with eight fulfilled prophecies, one could cover the Earth in coins to a depth of one hundred and twenty feet. But at forty-eight, the layer of coins would extend beyond the sun.
With such incomprehensibly low odds, is it reasonable to believe that these prophecies were the result of chance, myth, or fabrication? If you, like me, find that impossible to accept, then only one conclusion remains:
These prophecies were inspired by God. This is the most compelling evidence for the true authorship of the Bible. Coincidence? Luck?
[1]See www.intervarsity.org
[2]See the book Science Speaks: An Evaluation of Certain Christian Evidences by Peter W. Stoner, M.Sc., who served as Chairman of the Department of Mathematics and Astronomy at Pasadena City College until 1953.
[3]See http://belenesdelmundo.com/wordpress/
[4]See https://magnet.xataka.com/un-mundo-fascinante/asi-ha-crecido-la-poblacion-humana-desde-el-ano-1-dc-hasta-la-actualidad
[5]The calculation is found in his book Science Speaks, an Evaluation of Certain Christian Evidences.
